Kim Jong-un Returns to China, This Time With Leverage

Andrei Lankov, a Russian expert on North Korea who has lived in the North and still has ties there, said Mr. Kim would be seeking to take advantage of the trade conflict between the United States and China, deepening their rivalry to ensure they do not join forces against him, as they did last year on the United Nations sanctions over his weapons program.

「He wants to further disrupt the united China-U.S. front, which somewhat surprisingly emerged last year, but now is in critical condition due to the trade war,」 Mr. Lankov said.

Mr. Kim is turning out to be a 「very good diplomat,」 Mr. Lankov said. 「Like his late grandfather, Kim Il-sung, he might even learn how to outsmart the Chinese. The Americans under Trump was an unbelievably easy job.」

For its part, China would like Mr. Kim to pull back a bit on the bonhomie he showed Mr. Trump in Singapore, analysts in Asia said.

China, they said, sees the trade dispute with Washington as a more serious threat than Mr. Kim』s nuclear arsenal. When Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump were threatening each other』s countries with destruction last year, it gave China, as the North』s main ally and trading partner, leverage with Mr. Trump on trade.

Now, the analysts say, China would like Mr. Kim to be a little less cooperative with the United States — enough so that Mr. Trump might ease up on the tariffs, in the interest of keeping China in his corner where Pyongyang is concerned.

「China will try to use Kim to restore leverage over Trump, but there is no reason for Kim to play along and throw away all the things he has gained in Singapore, including direct talks with the U.S.,」 said Bilahari Kausikan, a former foreign secretary of Singapore. 「Kim wants to talk directly with the U.S.; why should he let China back into that equation?」

Essentially, Mr. Kausikan said, Mr. Trump is using Mr. Kim against China, and Mr. Kim is using China against the American president. 「It』s a triangular relationship, with Kim in the middle,」 he said.

Mr. Kim』s visit Tuesday seemed to indicate that relations between the neighboring states were warming, after recent years of strain as the young leader accelerated the country』s nuclear and missile programs.